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31. July 2026

On August 5, at approximately 6:34 am UTC, the spent upper stage of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket is expected to crash into the Moon’s sunlit western limb near Einstein crater, sending up a plume of debris that could be visible from Earth with the right equipment. The impact is forecast to occur at a speed of over 5,400 mph, making it one of the fastest-moving objects to hit the lunar surface.
Astronomers and researchers are closely monitoring the event, eager to witness this unprecedented spectacle. William Jo, a doctoral candidate at the University of Texas at Austin’s Cockrell School of Engineering, has led a study that forecasts just how big the impact could be. Using high-resolution physics simulations, Jo modeled what would happen when 3,900 kilograms of hollow metal hit the lunar surface.
The simulation predicted that the shell would collapse from its edges inward, throwing up a broad, low curtain of soil spreading as far as 183 kilometers wide, as well as a thin, faster spike nearly straight up. The expected impact was forecast to displace about 12,700 kilograms of debris, making it one of the largest plumes ever recorded on the sunlit face of the Moon.
However, researchers caution that this is just an estimate and that the actual event may differ from predictions. Jo’s simulation assumed a “best-case” scenario, where the rocket stage comes straight down, engine-first, with minimal angle of impact. In reality, the real object – the spent Falcon 9 stage – is likely to arrive at an angle, resulting in a smaller, dimmer plume, possibly without the big spike.
Laurence Trafton, an astronomer at UT Austin, emphasized that size isn’t the problem; rather, it’s the timing and visibility of the event. “It’s possible,” he said, “but hard to know until the moment of impact.” The new paper provides an estimate of where exactly to train a telescope, but contrast in the night sky could be a confounding factor.
The plume will be something like 30 to 300 times fainter than the blazing Moon beside it, and scattered moonlight will only make viewing harder. Catching it will require “a very steady mount,” Trafton said. Timing is crucial; the plume should peak about 90 seconds after impact, providing an observer with a short window of opportunity to witness the spectacle.
Geography plays a significant role in determining the visibility of the event. For anyone north of a line from Massachusetts to Texas, the Moon will hang so low that they’ll be peering through more than three times the usual thickness of atmosphere. This means viewers in those locations will be looking through a murky, turbulent slice of sky that could wash out any signs of the plume generated from the crash.
The Falcon 9 rocket’s impending collision with the Moon is a reminder of the vastness and mysteries of space. The event offers astronomers a unique opportunity to study the effects of a massive impact on the lunar surface, providing insights into the physics of debris dispersal and the behavior of gases in low-gravity environments.
For space enthusiasts and amateur astronomers, this event presents a rare chance to witness something truly historic. With the right equipment and a bit of luck, it may be possible to catch a glimpse of the plume generated by the Falcon 9 rocket’s impact with the Moon.
The study published by Jo and his team provides an estimate of where exactly to train a telescope to witness the event. However, the challenges in viewing the plume are significant due to the contrast between the bright lunar surface and the faint debris plume. The timing of the event is also crucial, with observers requiring a steady mount and precise timing to capture the spectacle.
The impact of the Falcon 9 rocket on the Moon’s surface has implications for our understanding of space debris and its effects on planetary bodies. The study’s findings will contribute to ongoing research into the physics of debris dispersal and the behavior of gases in low-gravity environments.
The impending collision of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket with the Moon’s surface offers astronomers a rare opportunity to study the effects of a massive impact on the lunar surface. With the right equipment and a bit of luck, it may be possible to catch a glimpse of the plume generated by the rocket’s impact. The event presents a unique chance for space enthusiasts and amateur astronomers to witness something truly historic, providing insights into the physics of debris dispersal and the behavior of gases in low-gravity environments.