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23. December 2024
The United States is taking a significant step towards developing Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), a game-changer that could potentially revolutionize industries and alter the course of human history. A report from the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) recommends a Manhattan Project-style initiative to develop AGI, which has sparked both excitement and concern among experts.
The proposed program, dubbed “Project Euphoria,” aims to provide multi-year contracts to leading AI companies, cloud providers, and data centre operators. This level of government involvement in AI development is reminiscent of the urgency seen in previous technological races, including the development of nuclear energy and space exploration. The US Department of Defense has already designated AGI as a top priority, with “DX Rating” – a designation typically reserved for critical national security projects.
However, the recommendations from the USCC extend beyond AI, targeting other emerging technologies that could potentially disrupt global markets. Autonomous humanoid robots are being restricted imports due to concerns over their advanced dexterity and intelligence capabilities. Energy infrastructure products with remote monitoring capabilities are also under scrutiny, reflecting growing concerns about connected technologies in critical infrastructure.
The report builds on existing export controls in the semiconductor space by recommending stronger oversight of technology transfers and investment flows. This comes as China continues to build domestic chip-making capabilities despite international restrictions. The USCC suggests creating an Outbound Investment Office that prevents US capital and expertise from advancing China’s technological capabilities in sensitive sectors.
Eliminating China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status is another key recommendation, which could reshape the technology supply chain and trade flows that have defined the global tech industry for decades. This move acknowledges how deeply intertwined the US and Chinese tech ecosystems have become, while suggesting that this interdependence may now pose more risks than benefits.
The report’s release comes at a critical juncture in technological development, with China’s push for self-sufficiency in vital technologies and its “new quality productive forces” initiative demonstrating Beijing’s determination to lead in next-generation technologies. AI capabilities and quantum computing breakthroughs have raised the stakes in technology competition.
However, achieving AGI remains a complex scientific challenge that may not yield quick results, regardless of funding levels. Restrictions on technology transfers and investment could have unintended consequences for global innovation networks that have historically benefited both nations.
The effectiveness of the proposed measures will likely depend on coordination with allies and partners who share similar technological capabilities and concerns. The report acknowledges this by recommending multilateral approaches to export controls and investment screening.
US-China technological competition has entered a new phase where government policy may play a more direct role in shaping development. Whether this approach accelerates or hinders innovation remains to be seen, but the tech industry should prepare for increased scrutiny and regulation of international technological collaboration.
With AGI on the horizon, the stakes are higher than ever, and the consequences of success or failure could be felt globally.