Uk Agency Dumps 110M Into Climate Tipping Point Detector Project

The UK’s Advanced Research and Invention Agency (Aria) has awarded £81 million to 27 teams working on an ambitious project to develop an early warning system for climate tipping points. This cutting-edge initiative aims to harness the power of artificial intelligence, cosmic ray detection, and advanced ocean monitoring systems to detect signals that forewarn of the greatest climate catastrophes.

The programme focuses on two critical tipping points thought to be at high risk of being triggered: the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, which would lead to catastrophic sea level rises, and the collapse of crucial ocean currents in the North Atlantic, which would disrupt global rainfall patterns and severely impact food supplies. Scientists have already detected early warning signs indicating that systems like the Amazon rainforest and west Antarctic ice sheet are becoming increasingly unstable.

Establishing a reliable early warning system is a complex task that requires much better data and computer models. The programme’s directors, Gemma Bale and Sarah Bohndiek, explain that their initiative is akin to setting up monitoring stations to detect tsunamis, with the goal of creating networks of climate monitoring systems to detect early signs of critical shifts in the climate.

“By leveraging advanced technologies like drone swarms, cosmic-ray detection, and artificial intelligence, we can equip decision-makers with the data they need to confront the threat of abrupt climate change head-on,” said Bale. The programme aims to create an early warning system that could provide a decade-level forecast of tipping points being triggered, where possible.

Experts warn that scientists have identified at least 16 dangerous tipping points, from northern permafrost collapse to a shift in the West Africa monsoon, and some may already have been passed. Even if these tipping points cannot be stopped, an early warning system would provide precious time for society to prepare for the major impacts.

The £81 million funding is substantial, but experts acknowledge that it’s a small amount compared to the costs of avoiding the consequences of crossing one or both of the critical tipping points. One team will use fleets of small drones to collect better data in Greenland, while another team is working on autonomous devices that move up and down through the ocean to monitor the sub-polar gyre.

The stakes are high, with potential consequences including harsher winters in northern Europe and dramatic sea level rises along the east coast of the US. Another team will track changes in plankton blooms, which can serve as “canaries in the coalmine,” using holographic imaging devices integrated with artificial intelligence.

The project also aims to develop hardened cosmic-ray neutron sensors suitable for the harsh environment of the Greenland ice sheet and deploy a network of sensitive seismic instruments that can measure runoff by listening to the vibrations caused by flowing water. Researchers will create highly detailed computer simulations trained on real-world data to test the reliability of potential early warning signals.

By working together and tackling this challenge from different angles, experts believe that Aria’s programme offers a unique opportunity for breakthroughs in climate research and mitigation. Forecasting tipping points is a formidable challenge, but the fantastic range of teams tackling this challenge makes this programme a historic opportunity to change course.