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03. April 2025
Trump Unleashes Global Economic Storm: Ai Fueling Speculation Over Artificially Engineered Tariffs
The recent announcement by President Donald Trump of sweeping tariffs on most goods imported into the US has sent shockwaves throughout the international economy, leaving many to wonder if the measures were concocted by an artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot. The tariffs, which affect over 100 countries, including uninhabited territories in the middle of the ocean, have sparked concerns over an imminent recession and are expected to wreak havoc on global trade.
The tariff rates, as outlined by Trump, divide the trade deficit between the US and a given country by the value of the total goods imported from it, and then divide the result by two. This calculation bears striking resemblance to the formulation used by OpenAI’s ChatGPT chatbot, which has raised questions about the involvement of AI in the administration’s decision-making process.
Crypto trader Jordan “Cobie” Fish asked ChatGPT to devise a plan for calculating tariffs that would level the playing field for US trade deficit. The AI tool responded with a remarkably similar calculation, dividing the trade deficit by total imports to calculate the tariff rate. However, even ChatGPT warned that this method ignores the intricate dynamics of international trade, including elasticities, retaliatory measures, and supply chain nuances.
“This method provides a blunt, proportional rule to ’level the playing field,’ but it doesn’t take into account the complexities of international trade,” ChatGPT wrote. “It’s like trying to solve a puzzle with only one piece in place.”
The similarity between ChatGPT’s response and Trump’s tariff rates has sparked debate among economists and traders, with some suggesting that the administration may have relied on AI to devise the plan. Journal of Public Economics editor Wojtek Kopczuk tweeted, “Confirmed, ChatGPT… Exactly what the dumbest kid in the class would do, without edits.”
A breakdown of which country got hit hard and which was spared by the new tariff rates highlights how the measures largely ignore the greater international trade context. Countries like Iran, which the US does not typically trade with, were exempt from the tariffs due to a lack of trade, while others, such as those in the European Union, were subject to significant increases.
“It’s no surprise that countries with minimal trade with the US are getting off so easily,” said one user on social media. “No trade = no trade deficit!”
The pattern of AI-generated responses to similar prompts has raised questions about the role of artificial intelligence in policy-making. Elon Musk’s AI chatbot, Grok, gave a similar answer when asked to devise a plan for calculating tariffs, suggesting adjusting tariff rates based on deficit size.
“However, this method assumes tariffs directly reduce imports by raising prices, but in reality, factors like demand elasticity, currency exchange rates, and global supply chains complicate the outcome,” Grok wrote. “It also risks retaliation or higher costs for US consumers.”
Anthropic’s Claude AI chatbot made a similar suggestion, adding that considering production costs, subsidies, and labor standards abroad would be necessary to achieve a truly “even playing field.” These caveats highlight the limitations of using simple mathematical calculations to inform complex policy decisions.
While it is impossible to confirm whether ChatGPT or other AI chatbots were directly involved in devising the tariff rates, the White House has already been accused of using AI to generate sloppily-written executive orders. The administration’s emphasis on its use of AI for governing has sparked debate among experts, who question the value of relying on artificial intelligence in policy-making.
The recent surge in protectionism has already had a chilling effect on international trade, with many countries scrambling to respond to the US’s unilateral measures. Economists are sounding the alarm about the potential consequences of the tariffs, warning that they will devastate the global economy and exacerbate existing trade tensions.
As policymakers navigate this uncertain terrain, it is essential to approach the topic with a critical eye, seeking to understand both the benefits and limitations of relying on AI-generated solutions. The future of global trade and economic growth hangs in the balance, and policymakers would do well to heed the warnings from experts on both sides of the aisle.
The use of artificial intelligence in policy-making raises important questions about accountability, transparency, and the role of human expertise in guiding complex decisions. As the world navigates this uncertain terrain, it is crucial to consider the implications of relying on AI-generated solutions and to strive for a more nuanced understanding of the role that technology can play in shaping economic policies.
The Economic Consequences of Trump’s Tariffs Will Be Felt for Years to Come
In conclusion, while the question of whether ChatGPT or other AI chatbots were involved in devising the tariff rates remains unanswered, one thing is certain: the use of artificial intelligence in policy-making raises important questions about accountability, transparency, and the role of human expertise in guiding complex decisions. As policymakers move forward, it is essential to approach this topic with a critical eye and to seek out a more nuanced understanding of the implications of relying on AI-generated solutions.
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