Pentagons Secret Ai Tool To Tame Global Metals Market Manipulation

The Trump administration has announced plans to utilize a Pentagon-developed artificial intelligence (AI) program, known as DARPA’s Open Price Exploration for National Security (OPEN), to set reference prices for critical minerals. This initiative is part of a broader effort to build a global metals trading bloc and address the pressing issue of Chinese market manipulation in the international trade landscape.

The administration intends to leverage OPEN’s pricing model as the backbone for a reference price system proposed by Vice President JD Vance at the Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington on February 4. This event brought together more than 50 countries to discuss strategies for addressing the growing demand for critical minerals.

Vance’s proposal centered around the adoption of reference prices for these minerals “at each stage of production,” with enforced tariffs serving as a deterrent against Chinese market manipulation. The use of AI-powered analysis, facilitated by OPEN, is expected to play a pivotal role in this endeavor.

Initially, the administration will focus on four key minerals: germanium, gallium, antimony, and tungsten. S&P Global and Finnish data firm Rovjok will provide critical support by supplying data and technical assistance for the initiative. Gallium, found in compounds such as gallium nitride (GaN) and gallium arsenide (GaAs), is utilized in compound semiconductors used in RF chips and power electronics, while germanium serves multiple purposes including chip doping, fiber optics, and high-speed microelectronics.

China’s dominance over global production of both metals is a pressing concern. The country controls an estimated 60% to 80% of global germanium production, with the United States relying on China for approximately 95% of its gallium supply. Beijing has imposed export licensing requirements on both metals in August 2023 and subsequently escalated to an outright ban on shipments to the U.S. in December 2024, only to suspend this ban partially in November 2025 as part of broader trade negotiations.

The OPEN program, launched in 2023, is specifically designed to address thinly traded or non-active metals where manufacturers struggle to distinguish between quoted prices and actual supply-and-demand conditions. By leveraging AI analysis, the initiative aims to provide a more accurate representation of market dynamics, thus facilitating informed decision-making by industry stakeholders.

In January 2024, Reuters reported that the program was set to be transferred to the Critical Minerals Forum, a non-profit organization dedicated to promoting transparency and stability in global critical mineral markets. This transition is expected to take place next year.

However, not everyone is convinced that this tariff-backed pricing model will prove effective in achieving its objectives. Nathaniel Horadam, a former U.S. Department of Energy staffer who managed critical minerals lending programs during both the Biden and Trump administrations, expressed skepticism about the efficacy of such an approach. According to him, “You can try to set something approximating a price floor, but ultimately the trade barriers aren’t going to guarantee someone on the other side of that tariff wall an actual price floor because multiple producers are still going to compete on price.”

Furthermore, questions surrounding scope have been raised by industry experts. The proposed reference price system could potentially extend to finished products containing these minerals, though this has not been explicitly clarified by the administration. This raises concerns regarding the broader implications of introducing AI-powered analysis into the already complex climate for international trade.

The introduction of AI-driven analysis to the global metals market is a topic of ongoing debate among industry stakeholders and policymakers alike. While some see it as an opportunity to level the playing field, others remain uncertain about its potential impact on market dynamics.

By exploring new approaches to global trade and leveraging cutting-edge technologies like AI, policymakers can help create a more favorable environment for businesses operating across international borders. This, in turn, will contribute to fostering stronger economic relationships between countries, enhancing the resilience of global supply chains, and promoting sustainable growth in industries critical to national security.

The ongoing discussion surrounding reference price systems, AI-driven analysis, and their implications for the global metals market underscores the pressing need for continued innovation and collaboration among governments, industry leaders, and experts.