Green Mountain Shift: Vermonts Progressive Heart Beats For Republicans In Historic Election Upset

Green Mountain Shift: Vermonts Progressive Heart Beats For Republicans In Historic Election Upset

Vermont’s Progressive Bastion Falls: How Affordability Crisis Led to Republican Gains

Vermont, a state synonymous with progressive politics, has long been a bastion of liberal values. However, the November general election saw Republicans make significant inroads in state legislative races, catching many off guard. The shift in voter sentiment can be attributed to the growing affordability crisis in the state, which has been a pressing concern for lawmakers in recent years.

The state’s progressive politics have been dominated by figures like independent Sen. Bernie Sanders, who has been a vocal advocate for social and economic justice. On the federal level, the Democratic edge is clear, with Vice President Kamala Harris defeating President-elect Donald Trump by over 31 points in Vermont. However, the state’s governor, Phil Scott, a Republican, even voted for Harris, declaring that he “put country over party.”

But further down-ballot, Republicans made key gains in Vermont, breaking Democratic supermajorities as voters concerned about affordability boosted the GOP in a series of pivotal races. Before the November general election, Democrats held 107 out of 150 seats in the Vermont House of Representatives, and the GOP held 37 seats. However, when the state House reconvenes in January, Democrats and Progressives will have 91 seats, compared to 56 for the GOP, with independents holding three seats.

The shift in voter sentiment can be attributed to the growing affordability crisis in Vermont, where housing costs have been skyrocketing. A June 2024 assessment taken for the Vermont Department of Housing and Community Development found that the state will need to boost the pace of homebuilding to produce the 24,000 to 36,000 new year-round homes from 2025 through 2029 needed to address demand and replace homes impacted by flooding.

The crisis has been exacerbated by inflation, which has driven blocs of traditionally Democratic-leaning constituencies, like Latino voters and young voters, into the GOP’s fold. During President Joe Biden’s term in office, inflation has been a major concern for many voters, who have been dissatisfied with the economy. Trump’s critical electoral gains across the country can be attributed to this dissatisfaction, as many voters opted for him instead of Harris.

Vermont’s form of Republicanism has traditionally been more moderate than the socially conservative brand that defines the national GOP. However, the state is still dominated by rural areas, where the party was ripe for gains. Democrats, who have been the driving force in the state capital of Montpelier, faced the ire of many voters who wanted to see the legislature curb tax hikes in the state.

As Vermont’s affordability crisis continues to worsen, it’s clear that the state’s politics are shifting. The Republican gains in the state legislative races are a sign of a broader trend, as voters become increasingly dissatisfied with the status quo. The question remains whether Democrats can adapt to the changing landscape and find a way to address the affordability crisis, or if the state will continue to drift further to the right.

In a statement to The New York Times, Jason Maulucci, Scott’s policy director, said, “The goal is to get them to come to the table … and to get enough support to work toward more affordability.” However, it remains to be seen whether Democrats can find a way to address the affordability crisis and regain control of the state legislature. One thing is certain, however: Vermont’s affordability crisis has had a profound impact on the state’s politics, and it will be interesting to see how the situation unfolds in the coming years.

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