Chinas Gdp Numbers May Be Understated By Half As Expert Reveals Hidden Growth Rate

A Chinese economist has shed new light on China’s official GDP numbers, suggesting that they might be higher than actual figures. Gao Shanwen, chief economist at SDIC Securities, believes the country’s real growth rate is likely between 3% and 4% over the next three to five years, despite the official number remaining at around 5%.

Gao’s comments come as China grapples with economic challenges such as a real-estate crisis and high youth unemployment. The economist had previously advised policymakers and has been vocal about his concerns regarding the accuracy of China’s GDP data.

The Chinese government has faced scrutiny over its handling of economic data, with some experts suggesting that the headline GDP figure is “systematically inflated” due to its calculation method. However, Gao’s comments are notable because they are from a prominent economist who has direct experience advising policymakers.

China reported 5.2% GDP growth last year and has a growth target of around 5% this year. While some economists have expressed skepticism about the accuracy of these numbers, Gao’s assessment is based on his analysis of regional data. In recent months, China has faced criticism for its handling of the pandemic lockdowns, which had a significant impact on consumer demand.

The country’s economy has been struggling to recover, with multiple issues including a real-estate crisis, high youth unemployment, and deflation. Top Chinese officials have pledged to loosen monetary policy, increase the budget deficit, and issue more debt to boost consumption and maintain stable economic growth. However, these measures have failed to excite investors, who are concerned about the lack of details.

China’s benchmark CSI300 Index was 1.8% lower at midday while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.7%. Analysts have warned that the country’s economy is not in a normal downcycle, and it may take more than a “bazooka” stimulus package to truly reboot the economy.

Gao’s comments highlight the complexities of China’s economic situation and the need for policymakers to address these challenges. As the country continues to navigate its recovery from pandemic lockdowns, investors and economists will be watching closely for any signs of improvement or further deterioration in the economic data.